There is a great deal of speculation of late on the possible (make that probable…) invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces. Speculation of whether or not Vladimir Putin really intends to make good on his gambit of a military build up of epic proportions on the Ukrainian border. A build up not seen in Europe since World War ll.
When considering this prospect I am reminded of Chekhov’s Dictum; an admonishment often referred to as Chekhov’s Gun;
It is a dramatic principle put forth by the Russian playwright which states that every element in a story must be necessary, and that irrelevant elements should be avoided. The included elements should not make “false promises” by never actually coming into play. The statement is recorded in letters by Chekhov several times, with some variation.[1][2][3][4]
My personal variant of his principle states that if you place a gun on the table in act one, then there should be a body on the floor by act three.
Donald Rayfield notes that Chekhov’s play The Cherry Orchard, contrary to his own advice, has two loaded firearms that are not fired. It is speculated that the unfired rifles tie into the play’s theme of lacking resolve or a timidity of nature and inability to take action.[5][6]
Ernest Hemingway mocked the principle in his essay “The Art of the Short Story”, giving the example of two characters that are introduced and then never mentioned again in his short story “Fifty Grand“. Hemingway valued inconsequential details, but he conceded that readers will inevitably seek symbolism and significance in these inconsequential details.[7] I suppose I should acknowledge at this point, the somewhat ironic end of Hemingway’s own “third act” which concluded with him dead of a self inflicted gunshot.
So, given the current set of elements that Putin has placed on the European stage we are left to wonder; does Putin subscribe to Anton Chekhov’s admonishment or is he more of a Hemingway guy?
“But why would he do this? It makes no economic or political sense.”
I hear people say this over and over. They are mystified and completely at a loss for an answer, as they search for the logic in the actions of this authoritarian strongman. Indeed from the point of view of anyone that has grown up in a capitalist/democratic society the attempt at discerning such factors would be difficult as the set of values that would be employed in creating a behavioral framework simply offer no corresponding list of probable motivations.
The answer I suspect would come, properly enough, from Putin himself when we examine even a brief history of his actions and public statements we see a pattern of aggression, hostility and coercion toward his geographical neighborhood of former Soviet block countries. In addition he proclaimed, mockingly, to Joe Biden; “You think that because I look like you that I perhaps think like you, but I assure you that I am nothing like you”
The why of Putin’s seeming obsession with Ukraine is clear enough. Ukraine is one of the largest exporters of grains in the world. The fertility of Ukrainian soil is well known. Metalurgical production is well established and profitable. In addition to this, Putin’s contention that Ukraine belongs to Russia as a matter of historical fact is a deeply held core belief of the little dictator. Indeed it is a central component of his “sphere of influence” doctrine.
A more cynical explanation would conclude that Putin simply does not care about any short term economic downside of an invasion and he cares even less about the suffering and loss of life that his actions will create.
Because here’s the thing:
Regardless of what he tells the world, or himself for that matter, at the end of the day Putin really only cares about one thing, Put simply; the goal and the prize for Putin is raw power. In his twisted mind that end; the unbridled and ruthless pursuit of power, justifies any means used in achieving it.
He believes that his actions, even more than being justified, make him look like a bold and decisive leader (albeit in a mold more akin to Peter the Great rather than that of Joseph Stalin…) and retaking Ukraine, or more accurately bending it to his will, moves him one step closer to a reconstituted Soviet Union, or more grandly; a reconstituted Czarist empire (with the historical way-points of Kyiv and Odessa as the “jewels in the crown”) and in recapturing Ukraine he substantially broadens his sphere of influence, now and for posterity, economics and politics be damned.
Add to that what may be an additional prize in Putin’s Machiavellian mindset; one that was vividly illustrated for him in the abrupt departure of US troops from Afghanistan and the rapid and demoralizing collapse of the Afghan resistance, leaving behind a substantial cache of shiny new US made weaponry which is now in the hands of the Taliban. Such a get would provide him the opportunity to make the US look weak and impotent before the world and show everyone susceptible to his propaganda that his iron-fisted Authoritarian style of governance is more effective and also provides a template for would-be autocrats to follow, thus bringing them further under his influence.
The means of pulling these armaments into Ukraine was relatively simple; mass his troops on the eastern and northern borders of Ukraine and then sit back and wait for the west to flood Ukraine with defensive weapons in the predictable response to an imminent invasion. An invasion that employs Russia’s enormous and largely unchallenged air superiority, would be intended to be swift and overwhelming thus limiting Ukraines ability to use such weaponry and leaving it for Russian troops to collect, study and incorporate into their own arsenal thus minimizing the efficacy of such weapons against them.
The potential down side of this psychopathy of course is the distinct possibility that he may underestimate Ukrainian resistance and a willingness to fight his invasion thus creating a protracted and very expensive eastern version of the Afghanistan quagmire that contributed substantially to the eventual collapse of the Soviet Union. A possibility that literally grows by the day as the Ukrainian army and the nations people become more hardened in their commitment to armed resistance and the very ground beneath his tanks begins to soften and gradually turn to mud, making the movement of large and heavy ordinance nearly impossible. A fact that Hitler and his army learned the hard way eighty years ago.
I don’t have a lot of working knowledge about what drives a Russian dictator, to want to see the world burn, but I do have some personal experience with bullies and the motivations of men who, above all else, desire power. My sad suspicion regarding Vladimir Putin’s adherence to Chekhov’s dramatic principle is that he likes to show us the gun, primarily to prevent us from seeing the knife that he will use to carve Ukraine up into little pieces that Russia will swallow up, first by fomenting violence and unrest in the region, then by declaring them at risk in some fashion, then by “recognizing” their independence from Ukraine, and then by declaring them part of Russia. This scenario is well established. He did it with Crimea and he will do it with Donens’k and Luhans’k, then Balaklava and Kharkiv, and then…
Unless something akin to a geo-political miracle happens soon, it is very likely that by the end of the third act of Putin’s wretched play, Ukraine will be laying on the floor bleeding and the Global economy (including that of the United States…) won’t be far behind.